Nintendo forecasts Switch 2 sales of 15 million units by the end of the 2025/26 financial year. The company also expects triple that number of software sales (45 million), excluding bundled software such as the Mario Kart World bundle launching alongside the base model on 5th June.
This forecast comes from the firm’s end-of-year results for 1st April 2024 to 31st March 2025, published this morning.
Looking at the stats, Nintendo managed to shift 10.8 million original Switches in the last financial year, a 31.2% decrease year-on-year. Switch 1 software sales were down 22.2% from the previous year at 155.41 million units (which included 2.97 million units of ‘bundled’ software).
The report shows net sales of 1.164.9 billion yen, a 30.3% decrease from the previous year, with net profits down 43.2% to 278.8 billion yen.
Looking to the upcoming console, Nintendo aims to “accelerate the platform by working to expand hardware and software sales through conveying the unique appeal of Nintendo Switch 2 and continuously releasing new titles.”
Notably, the report states that forecasts were based on US tariff rates as of 10th April:
For the purposes of our financial forecast for the next fiscal year, U.S. tariff rates effective on April 10, 2025, U.S. Eastern Time, are maintained throughout the fiscal year. Changes to tariff rates may affect our financial forecast. We will continue to monitor the situation to respond to changes in market conditions.
Nintendo’s focus is naturally on the new hardware given the retail effect of the Switch 2 announcement on the current model, with Q4 sales of just 1.26 million Switches in total following the January reveal of the successor. Nintendo still hopes to sell 4.5 million original Switches in the coming financial year, though. Not too bad for a console in its ninth year with a successor that plays nearly all its games.
Elsewhere, annual playing users fell by approximately 1 million players to 128 million and global sell-through of Switch 1 units (hardware sold to customers, as opposed to units in the retail chain) is “approaching 150 million units”. Digital sales were down 26.5% year-on-year, although the overall proportion of digital sales versus physical rose 3.3% due to a bump in Q4, with digital accounting for 62.9% of software sales. Mobile and “IP related” sales were also down 27% YoY, which Nintendo chalks up to the enormous success of The Super Mario Bros. Movie the previous year.
Super Mario Party Jamboree (7.48 million units), The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom (4.09 million), and the Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door remake (2.10 million) were highlighted as particular successes for FY2025, and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe added another 6.23 million sales to its life-to-date total (68.2 million).
Do you think Nintendo will have trouble shifting 15 million Switch 2s by April 2026? Seems like a conservative goal given the rampant demand. Let us know below.