The much-rumoured Switch successor that Nintendo fans and investors alike are eager to see officially revealed will struggle to match the current console’s overall hardware sales, according to analysts quoted in a new Bloomberg report (thanks, GoNintendo)
Anticipation for the system has sent shares of the company to a record high in recent weeks, although industry analysts for Goldman Sachs, CLSA Securities, and Macquarie Group have suggested that Nintendo will have its work cut out to exceed the level of interest and unit sales that the current console has enjoyed since 2017. Switch has sold over 132 million units as of November 2023.
Downgrading Nintendo stock to ‘neutral’, Macquarie Group analyst Yijia Zhai wrote, “We do not think the new console will be as successful as the Switch, and see potential profit-taking after the announcement.”
Goldman Sachs analyst Minami Munakata reported, “The share price looks overvalued,” further noting that, “we do not see profits during the next-generation hardware cycle surpassing peak profits of the Nintendo Switch cycle.” Munakata also says they think ‘Switch 2’ is unlikely to expand Nintendo’s audience beyond current levels, with the caveat that this might change if it “turns out to be new concept hardware rather than a successor along the same lines.”
Bloomberg notes that Nintendo’s recent stock climb has been sharper than either Microsoft or Sony, and also notes the expectation of further Nintendo films like The Super Mario Bros. Movie and a general uplift for the Japanese stock market as contributing factors besides overwhelming Switch 2 fever.
It should be said that the forecasts above could indeed come true and the next Nintendo console could still be a staggering success. Switch’s 132 million units sold — a figure that will soon rise when Nintendo releases its February financial report next week — puts it behind only the DS and the PlayStation 2 in terms of all-time console sales.
Guessing that ‘Switch 2’ might not sell as well as Switch (but also might, it depends) isn’t the most out-on-a-limb prediction we’ve seen analysts make — it’s less of a dartboard job and more an opinion channeled directly from the recently-Neuralinked brain of Captain Obvious.
Still, it’s fascinating to see how anticipation for a new console announcement is influencing not only fans but the markets as well. With Switch entering its eighth year in March, everyone is jonesing to know what’s next in the pipeline over in Kyoto.